Tuesday, December 17, 2013

Consensus Free Climate Science

"Sunspot activity is at its weakest for any solar maximum in a century or more."

That's a verifiable observation, easily fact checked. No computer models, hockey-stick graphs, or signed declarations from UN NGO's and various peer reviewed journals proclaiming consensus from highly credentialed climate scientist are necessary to check for yourself. Even the "pro-Global Warming/Climate Change" websites basically report the facts regarding the lack of sunspots during the present solar maximum.

Amateur solar enthusiasts who look at the sun themselves with solar telescopes, and have access to the historical record of sunspot activity can verify it for themselves.

But what does this really mean?

When the shit hits the fan, it's the end of the world as we know it.

Now, when dealing with Galactic time scales, "imminent" could mean 10, 20, several hundred or even a thousand years from now.

Or it could mean tomorrow.

But one thing is undeniable, and no scientific consensus is required to make the following statement: the history of the Earth's climate is cyclical, characterized by long periods of ice age climate conditions interspersed by short periods of warm weather called interglacials.

At the present, we are undoubtedly in an interglacial. Some would argue we are at the end of the latest interglacial.

Reports on sunspot activity lend some credence to this theory.

Consensus or not, one fact does remain...many of the supporters of human caused climate change have a record of making bold predictions in the past decade that have turned out completely wrong. This DailyMail article highlights one particularly egregious example of a BBC report that claimed the Arctic summers would be "ice-free" by 2013.

Only six years ago, the BBC reported that the Arctic would be ice-free in summer by 2013, citing a scientist in the US who claimed this was a ‘conservative’ forecast. Perhaps it was their confidence that led more than 20 yachts to try to sail the Northwest Passage from the Atlantic to the Pacific this summer. As of last week, all these vessels were stuck in the ice, some at the eastern end of the passage in Prince Regent Inlet, others further west at Cape Bathurst.

Shipping experts said the only way these vessels were likely to be freed was by the icebreakers of the Canadian coastguard. According to the official Canadian government website, the Northwest Passage has remained ice-bound and impassable all summer.

The BBC’s 2007 report quoted scientist Professor Wieslaw Maslowski, who based his views on super-computer models and the fact that ‘we use a high-resolution regional model for the Arctic Ocean and sea ice’.

He was confident his results were ‘much more realistic’ than other projections, which ‘underestimate the amount of heat delivered to the sea ice’. Also quoted was Cambridge University expert

Professor Peter Wadhams. He backed Professor Maslowski, saying his model was ‘more efficient’ than others because it ‘takes account of processes that happen internally in the ice’.

He added: ‘This is not a cycle; not just a fluctuation. In the end, it will all just melt away quite suddenly.’

Sure thing, Professor. Because computer models and fossil fuel! Note that another pro-man made global warming/climate change organization also reports on the current minimal sunspot activity is comparable to the last "mini-ice age" of the late 17th and early 18th centuries.

The combined data indicate that we may soon be headed into what's known as a grand minimum, a period of unusually low solar activity.
The predicted solar "sleep" is being compared to the last grand minimum on record, which occurred between 1645 and 1715.

Known as the Maunder Minimum, the roughly 70-year period coincided with the coldest spell of the Little Ice Age, when European canals regularly froze solid and Alpine glaciers encroached on mountain villages.

Hmmmm....think the Sun's activity may actually have something to do with the current record levels of cold wintry conditions all around the planet these past few months? Even here in Hawaii, with our year round tropical climate, we've had record lows in 2013.

It seems only common sense to conclude that the sun is THE primary driver of climate on Earth. Don't tell that to our (Government funded) experts...

"We have some interesting hints that solar activity is associated with climate, but we don't understand the association," said Dean Pesnell, project scientist for NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO).

Also, even if there is a climate link, Pesnell doesn't think another grand minimum is likely to trigger a cold snap.

"With what's happening in current times—we've added considerable amounts of carbon dioxide and methane and other greenhouse gases to the atmosphere," said Pesnell, who wasn't involved in the suite of new sun studies.

"I don't think you'd see the same cooling effects today if the sun went into another Maunder Minimum-type behavior."

Ah, so all these record low temperatures of 2013 are indicative of nothing significant, eh?

So it appears we DO have some sort of a consensus.

During the current phase of the solar cycle, the Sun appears to be entering a phase of minimal sunspot activity compared to the last mini-ice age.

But we still have a large number of scientists who are true believers in the infallibility of computer models predicting man made global warming...and they are all looking at the current solar cycle, and the reports of new record low temperatures all over the planet, and still trying to tell us all that Global Warming from man made causes is still a threat to humanity.

Remember...97% of scientists agree that man made climate change is real!

Where did that 97% number that has been touted over and over again as the holy grail of scientifically proven consensus actually come from anyhow? According to the leading website for "climate-change deniers," it was a dishonest and disingenuous "study" that came up with it. From  The 97% consensus myth – busted by a real survey:

So, the inconvenient truth here is that about half of the world’s largest organization of meteorological and climate professionals don’t think humans are “mostly” the cause of Anthropogenic Global Warming the rest will probably get smeared as “deniers”

It would be more accurate to say that 97% of the scientists who receive funding and grants to support the global warming propaganda industry agree.

As for me...I know what I think.


Anonymous said...

Man it's hard to believe that there are so many idiots in the world spouting things that make absolutely no sense whatsoever. The only thing I can think of that would redeem some of them is that they are in it purely for the money and spouting off what their government masters want them to say. In either case it seems that it may be a good time to move to Hawaii as I hate the cold.


Southern Man said...

Good science includes vigorous refutation and a healthy dose of skepticism. Falling back on "consensus" is an open admission that your ideas are weak, and it only takes one man to overturn them.

Edwin Calais said...

You know what else is a crock-o-crap about global warming? That the sea levels are rising.

I live on the Pacific Ocean, as do you HL, so when they say that global warming is causing ocean levels to rise - specifically in the Pacific - what do you think they are talking about?

Check out this link which shows a mark made on the Island of Tasmania made in the mid-19th century showing the mean tide-level. Notice that it has not changed (click the sub-link for a close-up of the mark). Since then the majority of the Industrial Revolution happened - especially the man-made pollution part! Yet, the sea level is still the same, according to this mark.

Ever notice when they talk about rising sea levels, they are always talking about Pacific Islands that are ATOLS, which, by their very nature, rise and sink into the sea?

The "sea level" in the Pacific is the same in Hawaii as it is in Vancouver... so why is it always these nations built on atols that they claim are sinking into the sea? Why? Why? Why? If the island of Tonga or Vanuatu or whatever atol actually WERE suffering from a rise of ocean levels because of rising sea levels, Hawaii would be in trouble too, as well as the entire coast line of North and South America, of which I live upon, and no significant sea level rise has taken place.

Just goes to show how powerful the Television is, instead of the window out of your home that shows reality. Somehow, people seem to believe that "sea level" is not a constant around the world when they hear it on the Tell-a-Vision.

Edwin Calais said...

In fact, the entire reason a lagoon exists on so many of these pacific islands is because as the coral builds up out of the ocean and creates an island, the center cannot sustain itself under the pressure of gravity, and collapses back into the sea, creating a lagoon. In other words, the entire structure of an island built on ocean coral is quite literally building itself from the sea floor, then collapsing under its own weight back to the sea floor.

What a poor example to use of "sea levels rising," when your very measuring stick changes with time - and coral build up and collapse happens a LOT faster than the build-up and collapse of mountain ranges, like the Rockies.

They're all charlatans. If some atol in the Pacific is suffering a one foot rise (or sink) over the past twenty years, then the Coastline of the Continents would also be suffering a one foot rise. The fact that they are not, while the atols are, indicates a sinking atol, not rising sea levels.

Richard Nikoley said...

Hey, bad link for the BBC article Keoni.


I swear to God I'll laf if all the crew on all 20 yachts stuck in the ice 'that never was,' get eaten by "stranded" polar bears on their micro glaciers (when the bears get time off from photo-op shoots).

Keoni Galt said...

@ Gunner451 - "In either case it seems that it may be a good time to move to Hawaii as I hate the cold." I love to visit colder climes...because I live in tropical warmth, year round. I imagine I'd get sick of the cold if I had to live in it.

@ Edwin - I once raised that precise point about atolls in an old online debate I had with some liberal Warmists. They had no answer for it.

@ Richard - thanks! I just fixed it.

Taiwan said...

ya i would think that's true.

Anonymous said...

In a June 1974 issue TIME assured its readers that a global freezing was on the way. Weather predicting cranks will always get unwarranted attention in the media.

Jace said...

If i hear one more person say "but the science says" or "if you look at the science..." regarding climate change, I think I will stab someone.

Eric said...

Scientists have known since the 19th Century that carbon dioxide in the atmosphere reaches a saturation point; after which it has no further effect on climate. They learned this from studying the effects of the high volcanic activity during that century (which emitted more CO2 into the atmosphere than all the factories combined) and with models in laboratories.

They've also known that solar activities and climate change were connected since that time as well.

But one modern scientific study I can agree with recently concluded that the average IQ has dropped nearly 20 points since the mid 20th Century in the Anglosphere: that seems to be fairly obvious---even among the 'scientific community' itself!

Edwin Calais said...

You know, HL, I think that the only way this issue can be solved is for you and I to get some government funding, then, twice a year (for each of us - perhaps on the equinoxes), to meet up on a beach in either Hawaii, or Vancouver, and sit there with a bottle of hooch in our hand, with a ruler stuffed into the sand, and observe each millimeter of rise, each year, for every year, forever and ever, as long is it is government funded, amen.

Now, THAT, would be a good job!

We should start a movement…

Eric said...

If you have a chance to do this, is there a way you could send me an e-mail? I have some information about climate change I'd like to share with you.

Maxim said...

Climate change is interesting stuff. Good article